This paper addresses three questions: 1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; 2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth in terms...
This paper analyzes the economic growth impact of organized political violence. First, the authors articulate the theoretical underpinnings of the growth impact of political violence in a popular model...
This paper presents a game theory model of the strategic interaction between Khartoum and Juba leading up to the referendum on Sudan's partition in 2011. The findings show that excessive militarization...
Foreign aid, the Real Exchange Rate (RER), and economic growth are three key variables that shape the aftermath of civil wars in many developing countries. Panel estimations drawn from a sample of 39 conflict...
In the two to five years immediately following end of conflicts, United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations have succeeded in maintaining peace, while income and consumption growth rates have been higher...
The most influential recent work on the determinants of civil wars found the factors associated with the grievance motivation to be largely irrelevant. Our paper subjects the results of this empirical...
Post-conflict countries receive substantial aid flows after the start of peace. While post-conflict countries' capacity to absorb aid (that is, the quality of their policies and institutions) is built...
In a large cross-country sample of manufacturing establishments drawn from 188 cities, average exports per establishment are smaller for African firms than for businesses in other regions. The authors...
The objectives of the ICA are to assess the current performance of formal manufacturing firms, to identify the key constraints on their growth and competitiveness, and to prioritize and assess policy priorities...
The World Bank is engaged in 38 post-conflict countries and areas. A fifth of Bank commitments were devoted to those countries in FY2004. The Bank created a new post-conflict unit in 1998 and instituted...
In 1999 the World Bank proposed the 'Comprehensive Development Framework: CDF initiative.' The CDF vision is articulated around four major principles: long-term, holistic development framework; country...
This book describes and analyzes critical aspects of the labor market and social protection in the Arab world. The authors address the interrelationship between labor, human development, and social well-being...
与知道战争如何爆发和结束同样重要的是,应该知道在一个特定时期内可能会爆发多少战争。在预防内战的战略中,政治开放应该优先于经济发展。但是,最佳的可能成果应该来自政治改革、经济多元化和减轻贫困等多种因素的结合。 内战的定量研究一直把重点放在内战的爆发或终结上,在研究战争过程的两个端点方面提出了重要见解。Elbadawi和Sambanis通过研究在特定时期内可能爆发的战争数量弥补了这些研究的不足。 为了回答本问题,他们把内战爆发和内战持续时间理论的最新进展相结合,并建立了战争发生率的概念,即在特定时期内可能观察到的内战事件的几率。根据这个新概念,他们用161个国家五年内的固定样本数据集测试了战争的爆发和持续时间。他们对战争发生率的分析证实了许多以前的研究成果,并通过强调社会政治变量是内战风险的决定性因素而丰富了这些成果。他们的发现包括:...
Contrary to popular belief, Africa's civil wars are not due to its ethnic and religious diversity. Using recently developed models of the overall prevalence of civil wars in 161 countries between 1960-1999...
以前的研究认为,内战的持续时间较长主要源于社会的种族分化,因为在种族分化社会中,反叛者更容易团结在一起,同时反叛行为的持续时间也更长。本研究表明外部干预趋向于降低叛军协调(或镇压叛乱)的成本,从而,即使在那些种族分化不是很严重的社会中,外部干预也很可能延长内战的持续时间。 作者将一个内战持续时间理论模型与一个外部干预实证模型结合起来。他们的外部干预实证模型使得他们可以在持续时间理论模型中采用“预期的”(而非“实际的”)外部干预作为解释变量,来分析内战的持续时间。...
Private saving in Sub-Saharan Africa declined from more than 11 percent of disposable income in the 1970s to less than 8 percent in the 1980s and only partially recovered (to less than 9 percent) in the...
Major changes are needed if Africans and their children are to claim the 21st century. With the rapidly growing population, 5 percent annual growth is needed simply to keep the number of poor from rising...
Major changes are needed if Africans and their children are to claim the 21st century. With the rapidly growing population, 5 percent annual growth is needed simply to keep the number of poor from rising...
Major changes are needed if Africans and their children are to claim the 21st century. With the rapidly growing population, 5 percent annual growth is needed simply to keep the number of poor from rising...
1990年代,非洲(相对于东亚)的制造品出口业绩不佳,这似乎在很大程度上是不利的政策——特别是那些影响交易成本的政策造成的。 Elbadawi以关于撒哈拉以南地区(非洲)制造品出口前景的三种重要论点为指导,分析了影响非洲与其他发展中国家制造品出口的决定因素: Adrian Woods认为,非洲在劳动密集型制造品出口(在广义的含义下还包括来料加工)方面不可能有比较优势,因为其自然资源禀赋比人力资源禀赋更大(禀赋论)。...