Previous literature suggests that leaders matter for growth in general. This paper asks which leaders matter and develops a methodology to estimate the growth contribution of individual leaders and calculate...
The World Development Report (WDR) has become such a fixture that it is easy to forget the circumstances under which it was born and the Bank's motivation for producing such a report at that time. In the...
The authors systematically document remarkably high degrees of concentration in manufacturing exports for a sample of 151 countries over a range of 3,000 products. For every country manufacturing exports...
The World Development Report (WDR) has become such a fixture that it is easy to forget the circumstances under which it was born and the Bank's motivation for producing such a report at that time. In the...
When growth-promoting spending is cut so much that the present value of future government revenues falls by more than the immediate improvement in the cash deficit, fiscal adjustment becomes like walking...
Fiscal adjustment becomes like walking up the down escalator when growth-promoting spending is cut so much as to lower growth and thus the present value of future tax revenues to a degree that more than...
The Social Sector Technical Assistance Credit for Bosnia and Herzegovina had the following ratings: the outcome was unsatisfactory, the sustainability was likely, the institutional development impact was...
报告试图提出和解答一些财政风险的分析方法和相关的体制改革问题。它探讨了传统的财政风险管理方法和在西方国家最近出现的处理财政风险方法的优劣之处。报告还提出了几个管理和估计财政风险新工具的设想。
This book is organized as follows: Introduction; by William Easterly and Luis Serven Latin America's Infrastructure in The Era of Macroeconomic Crises; by Cesar Calderon, William Easterly, and Luis Serven...
This book is organized as follows: Introduction; by William Easterly and Luis Serven Latin America's Infrastructure in The Era of Macroeconomic Crises; by Cesar Calderon, William Easterly, and Luis Serven...
These are the proceedings of the Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics, which gathers the global perspective of scholars, and practitioners of development policy from academic life, government...
The article documents five stylized facts of economic growth: (1) the 'residual' (total factor productivity, tfp) rather than factor accumulation accounts for most of the income and growth differences...
1975年之后发生的世界范围的增长减速在1980年代中等收入国家的债务危机中、在债务负担沉重的贫困国家1980年代和1990年代的危机中、以及在工业化国家1980年代和1990年代不断增长的公共债务负担中起了重要作用。 “千万不要在同一个晚上既吃安眠药又吃泄药”——作者的玛里琳姨妈留下的至理名言。 1975年之后世界范围内的增长减速是一项主要的负面财政冲击。增长减速降低了税收和初级盈余的现值,从而加重了一定债务水平上的负担。大多数国家没有根据增长萎缩的负面财政后果进行调整,因此导致公共债务与GDP的比例暴涨。...
有证据表明,国际货币基金组织和世界银行的调整贷款稳定了贫困人口的消费;同时,它在经济的紧缩时期降低了贫困增长的速度,但也在经济的扩张时期降低了贫困下降的速度。调整贷款发挥的作用类似不平等的作用,它降低了贫困对经济总增长速度的敏感性。 结构调整(用国际货币基金组织和世界银行调整贷款的数量来衡量)降低了减轻贫困的增长弹性。Easterly发现,没有证据表明结构调整对增长有直接影响。 在获得许多调整贷款的国家,穷人从产量扩张中获得的收益少于获得较少此类贷款的国家的穷人。出于同样原因,在获得许多调整贷款的国家,穷人从产量收缩中受到的伤害也小于获得此类贷款较少的国家的穷人。为什么会是这样?...
This volume questions what have we learned from a decade of empirical research on growth. The response, that " It ' s not factor accumulation: stylized facts and growth models " by William Esasterly and...
在政府制度较为薄弱情况下,种族多样化有可能给经济政策和增长带来负面效应。不过,当种族多样化程度较高时,薄弱的制度对经济增长和政策所造成的负面效应要更为严重。 Easterly 和 Levine (1997)以及其他学者发现种族分裂将给经济增长带来负面效应。不过,高质量的制度可以降低种族分裂的这种负面效应。制度的质量主要反映在如下一些因素:法律法规、官僚素质、对政府掠夺行为的约束程度和契约免于政府破坏的程度。...
World Bank's new approach helps business in transition economies; by Lars Jeurling. Are foreign investors and multinationals engaging in corrupt practices in transition economies? by Joel Hellman, Geraint...
较高的中产阶级收入和较低的民族分化程度与以下方面有经验性的联系,即较高的收入、较高的增长率、较高的文化水平、较好的健康状况、较好的基础设施、较好的经济政策、较低的政治不稳定性、较少的内战(使少数民族面临风险)、较高程度的社会“现代化”和较多的民主。 现代政治经济强调“社会分化”是发展结果的一项决定性因素。最常见的社会冲突形式包括阶级分化和民族分化。 中产阶级赞同的定义是,较高的中产阶级收入比重和较低的民族分化程度。中产阶级赞同可以区分发展的成功与失败。...
This paper sets forth a framework for thinking about growth volatility which is general enough to incorporate the important structural, institutional, and policy variations among countries which might...
理论模型预测长期储蓄偏好不变的国家,通过增加新债务或减少资产来应对债务减免。有一些迹象表明,过去二十年来增长的债务减免证实了这些预测。债务减免对长期储蓄偏好不变的国家不起作用。 经过二十年的债务减免努力之后,重债贫困国如何积累了高负债? 一系列理论模型预测长期储蓄偏好不变的国家通过减少资产和增加新借款或来应对债务减免。 一个模型还预测实行一个高贴现率的政府将会选择质量低下的政策,并将其跨时代偏好强加给整体经济。...