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Energy demand in the developing countries : prospects for the future (英语)

In recent years, energy consumption has increased rapidly in the developing countries. Their share in global energy consumption (outside of the USSR and Eastern Europe) has increased from 20 percent in 1970 to 33 percent in 1988. It is anticipated that these energy consumption trends will continue. Given their growing role in the global energy markets, the main motivation of this study was to highlight the key factors that have contributed to the historical increases in energy consumption in the developing countries as well as to project the changes likely to occur in the future. The results of the study indicate that increased levels of motor vehicle use and urbanization are the main factors contributing to increases in energy consumption in the developing countries. These factors, as well as rising incomes and shifts away from the use of traditional fuels, will continue to support increases in commercial energy use over the long term. As a result of fuel substitution, the pattern of fuel use will change during the 1990s. Gas is likely to become a more popular fuel, encouraged by changes in pricing and exploration. The share of coal in total primary energy is expected to fall significantly. Hydro use and oil consumption are expected to more than double by the year 2010. It is estimated that the total energy savings, due to improved efficiency and substitution, will be on the order of 23 percent of total energy use and 33 percent of oil use by the year 2010.


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    Imran, Mudassar Barnes, Philip

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    Energy demand in the developing countries : prospects for the future

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