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World rubber market structure and stabilization : an econometric study (英语)

This study examines some problems in the market for natural rubber, one of the ten core commodities proposed for stabilization. The first part of the study is concerned with the specification, estimation, and validation of an econometric model of the world natural and synthetic rubbers market. The disaggregated annual model for 1956-78 consists of two submodels, one for each rubber, and reflects their different industrial organizations. The model validation shows that the secular decline in natural rubber price up to 1973 was due primarily to the substitution of natural rubber by the cheaper synthetic rubbers. The second part of the study concerns the application of the model to forecasting natural rubber prices and to analyzing the implications of natural rubber market stabilization. Ex post and ex ante simulations of buffer stock stabilization showed the importance of the manner in which the buffer stock is operated. The results also show that stabilization will have different effects for the producing and consuming countries, which raises the question of the funding of the buffer stocks.