Skip to Main Navigation

Recent trends in trade among developing countries (英语)

This paper presents the early results of empirical work on trade among developing countries. The main conclusion is that non-fuel trade among developing countries, excluding capital surplus oil exporters, remained a remarkably stable share of their total trade between 1963 and 1977. This constancy does, however, conceal two opposing trends: the share of manufactures exported to developing countries has been falling sharply, while that of non-fuel primary commodities has been rising, the latter largely because of the demands of the newly industrializing countries. Four particular points emerge from the evidence: (i) there is no obvious sign of a bias against trade among developing countries except whatever effect their own commercial policies may have; (ii) the more inward-looking countries tend to send a higher proportion of their exports to other developing countries and regional integration strengthens this effect; (iii) exports of manufactures to developing countries are much more capital intensive than those to industrialized countries; and (iv) exports to developing country markets may not be the vital first stage for capital goods exports that is sometimes supposed.