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Recent trends in trade among developing countries (英语)

This paper presents the early results of empirical work on trade among developing countries. The main conclusion is that non-fuel trade among developing countries, excluding capital surplus oil exporters, remained a remarkably stable share of their total trade between 1963 and 1977. This constancy does, however, conceal two opposing trends: the share of manufactures exported to developing countries has been falling sharply, while that of non-fuel primary commodities has been rising, the latter largely because of the demands of the newly industrializing countries. Four particular points emerge from the evidence: (i) there is no obvious sign of a bias against trade among developing countries except whatever effect their own commercial policies may have; (ii) the more inward-looking countries tend to send a higher proportion of their exports to other developing countries and regional integration strengthens this effect; (iii) exports of manufactures to developing countries are much more capital intensive than those to industrialized countries; and (iv) exports to developing country markets may not be the vital first stage for capital goods exports that is sometimes supposed.

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