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Are oil windfalls a blessing or a curse Policy exercises with an Indonesia - like model (英语)

The value of large, unpredictable terms-of-trade gains to mineral exporting countries has been much debated. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model of an Indonesia-like economy to assess the 'value' of oil windfalls over a 20-year horizon. The model is simulated and optimized subject to a variety of assumptions on macroeconomic clearing, institutional constraints on economic policy and the ability to predict the world oil market. The results indicate the critical importance of policy in determining the realized value of windfall gains. The possibility of capital flight, spurred on by restrictive domestic financial policies and anticipation of the need to realign the real exchange rate when oil revenues fall shortens the adjustment period and can involve heavy cost if fiscal policy is not stabilizing. Overoptimistic predictions of future oil revenues are shown to have seriously adverse consequences, particularly if the non-oil economy adjusts to falling demand through underemployment and capital flight is provoked. Overall, the results indicate a large downside risk attached to reversible terms of trade gains.

详细

  • 作者

    Gelb, Alan H.

  • 文件日期

    1985/11/01

  • 文件类型

    部门工作文件

  • 报告号

    DRD135

  • 卷号

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • 国家

    印度尼西亚,

  • 地区

    东亚与太平洋区,

  • 发布日期

    2010/07/01

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • 文件名称

    Are oil windfalls a blessing or a curse? Policy exercises with an Indonesia - like model

  • 关键词

    oil price;alternative use;world oil price;real exchange rate;computable general equilibrium model;world oil market;capital flight;real exchange rate depreciation;terms of trade gain;price of investment good;quality of public spending;capital flow;oil windfall;windfall gain;discount rate;Oil Income;public investment program;debt service ratio;social value;factor of production;private saving rate;high oil price;oil boom;domestic oil;stock of debt;marginal public spending;domestic financial assets;tax rate shift;world interest rate;population growth rate;expansion of export;rates of return;Exchange rate policies;exchange rate policy;current account deficit;oil price decline;efficiency of capital;overvalued exchange rate;flexible labor market;imperfect capital markets;burden of adjustment;domestic interest rate;downward wage rigidity;social welfare function;world market share;volatile capital flows;oil revenue fund;oil price increases;oil producing country;allocation of labor;world food;open capital market;income developing country;real growth rate;process of adjustment;determinant of capital;restrictions on price;net foreign asset;fixed interest rate;real private investment;private consumption;oil exporter;modern sector;oil economy;public borrowing;consumption rate;macroeconomic rigidity;Economic Management;oil output;real consumption;sticky wage;Fiscal policies;fiscal policy;macroeconomic adjustment;real wage;real output;domestic demand;foreign debt;domestic price;adjustment cost;import substitution;perfect foresight;government borrowing;private investor;efficiency loss;Exchange Rates;rigid wage;private rate;food subsidies;private private;food import;pricing policy;commodity price;direct transfer;traditional sector;formal sector;product wage;social objective;absorptive capacity;export ratio;traded sector;private asset;real investment;good policy;production function;relative price;Political Economy;economic trajectory;effective demand;negative value;policy simulation;foreign borrowing;price stickiness;alternative policy;political movement;base year;causal relationship;oil sector;foreign demand;optimal policy;world price;comparative study;capital stock;debt-service ratio;payback period;price rigidity;

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