Global economic prospects, January 2014 : coping with policy normalization in high-income countries (英语)
This report describes the forces acting on the global economy and its implications on developing countries using evidence based analysis. The report includes forecasts for individual developing regions and countries, as well as a research focused chapter... 更多显示
This report describes the forces acting on the global economy and its implications on developing countries using evidence based analysis. The report includes forecasts for individual developing regions and countries, as well as a research focused chapter examining capital flows and risks to developing countries. The report describes a global economy that is at a turning point. For the first time in five years, there are indications that a self-sustaining recovery has begun among high-income countries - suggesting that they may now join developing countries as a second engine of growth in the global economy. The stronger growth in high-income countries reflects progress in both private and public-sector healing in the wake of the financial crisis. The global economic prospects describes a baseline scenario where this gradual process is assumed to continue, resulting in a modest reduction in capital flows to developing countries from 4.6 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) in 2013 to around 4.0 percent in 2016. Whatever drag this implies for developing country growth is more than offset by the additional export demand due to stronger high-income country growth. While the smooth adjustment process is the most likely scenario, the novelty of the unwinding process has only begun and the rapid spike in long-term interest rates during the summer of 2013 suggests that a much more abrupt rise in long-term interest rates is also a possibility, if less likely. In such a disorderly adjustment scenario, capital flows to developing countries can decline temporarily by 50 percent or more for a period of several months - potentially pushing one or more countries into crisis. Evidence suggests that countries with large current account deficits or those that have had a rapid accumulation of credit in recent years can be most vulnerable to a precipitous tightening of international financial conditions.